Politics and Promises: A new scramble to form a coalition government

Opinion article by Ambrosé du Plessis, Department of Public Administration and Management, University of the Free State

 Photo: Ambrosé du Plessis

Supplied

South Africa is once again at a crossroads since the dawn of our democracy.

The 2024 elections have led to a watershed moment in South Africa’s political history. With no clear “winner”, at least in the National Assembly, voters, politicians, and civil servants are no doubt confronted by an uncertain future. We are moving into an age of disruption where traditional ways of thinking about politics are no longer feasible in addressing government and governance. No one has described this age more eloquently than Antonio Gramsci, a political philosopher who once noted that “the old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters”.

In the context of South Africa, 2024 marks the death of the dominant party system in the national sphere, under the leadership of the African National Congress (ANC) with little possibility of its resurrection.Compared to liberation movements across Africa, the ANC has failed to sustain its power and will continue its downward spiral. For once power is lost, it is difficult to reclaim as the Western Cape and Gauteng provinces have demonstrated. It seems coalition governments are here to stay.

Coalition politics replaces singularity with plurality and complexity

This tectonic political shift has catapulted South Africa into the coalition politics game. At this stage, traditional political ideas on which South Africa’s political structures have been built will be tested in a multiparty coalition that is often characterised by deep ideological diversity and intractable conflict. This quagmire of coalition politics replaces singularity with plurality and complexity, and replaces post-Cold War political ideologies from the left and the right that so often characterise South Africa’s major political parties. Thus, pre-election manifestos lose most of their relevance as promises made by politicians become imaginative. The latter, as a political phenomenon, is deeply engraved in the promises politicians made to the electorate that often lose sight of the realpolitik. In reality politicians sell lofty political promises that are often unattainable in economic terms. For German-American historian and philosopher, Hannah Arendt, these dreams are necessary since election promises are a unique way for humans to make sense of the future. Therefore, an envisioned future centred on prosperity and material wealth forms an integral part of political rhetoric. Interestingly, in coalition politics prosperity and wealth can no longer be created by a single political party aka the ANC at national government. This requires skilful politicians who can not only negotiate coalition agreements but can sustain government and governance.

In the next few days (14 days) after the official results were announced by the IEC, different political parties will have to negotiate to form a government. Without a clear legislative framework on coalition politics at the national sphere, a scramble for the executive cake has been triggered. At this stage, office-seeking motives move to centre and policy and ideology to the back burner, leading to superficial coalition agreements. Unlike Western Europe, where the formateur or the biggest political party (with the most seats) would lead the pack to constitute a coalition government. In South Africa coalition politics become a free for all and enemies become friends to soon, leading to a haphazard marriage of inconvenience bound for divorce. Thus, any coalition government formed within 14 days will create a fragile national government. This reality will soon bring the various political parties to a rude awakening that national government is far too big to be shared in two weeks. Political parties’ non-negotiable and their grave underestimations of the coalition game poses a significant risk for stable government and governance. Similar to metropolitan municipalities, and especially the City of Johannesburg, a motion of no confidence may as well become a common phenomenon at national government. Unlike local government, a motion of no confidence at national government will not only have far-reaching implications for the president and his ministers, but also on cooperative governance. Thus, turning the administrative apparatus of state into a political football susceptible to who is governing at a particular time.

Who will govern South Africa?

Who will govern South Africa appears to be the biggest mystery in this endlessly changing political environment. Intra- and inter-political party dynamics complicate existing coalition discussions further, with factions within the ANC already opposing and marching against a DA-ANC coalition government. It remains to be seen how the ANC will deal with internal (ANC factions) and external (Multi-party Charter) enemies. With the latter’s public mission statement to unseat the ANC, we are already sitting on the brink of distrust. No one is more skilful than Jacob Zuma, the leader of MKP and suspended ANC member who reminds tripartite alliance (ANC, Cosatu and SACP) and MKP supporters that Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC is working with the enemy. This already plants the seed of a “certain death” for Ramaphosa at the ANC’s next elective conference if it goes to bed with the DA

Political parties’ flip-flopping will be the Achillies heel for any sustainable coalition talks. For example, the Multi-party Charter concluded between the DA, IFP, FF Plus, ISANCO, UIM and SNP, who solemnly swore not to work or co-govern with the ANC, EFF and similar affiliates set a dangerous precedent for dishonesty and destroying the moral fibre of an already ailing society that still lingers from state capture. Tracking coalition agreements, which have predominantly taken place behind closed doors, suggests that we are heading for a secret coalition agreement that dictates the will of the political parties and not the citizenry. In other words, the social contract, concluded between the political parties and the electorate will now be transformed into a “secret contract”, leading to partitocracy. When this happens, political parties dictate the rule of law, with little distinction if any between business and politics. At this juncture we are reminded of the words of author Patience Johnson: “In politics no permanent friends, no permanent enemies but permanent interest.” To this end, one can only hope that a multiplicity of interests will converge with the national interest (or what that may be?) and the general welfare of South Africa, yet this becomes an idealistic dream that is not indicative of the realpolitik